Think globally, act locally: Phylodynamic reconstruction of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) QX genotype (GI-19 lineage) reveals different population dynamics and spreading patterns when evaluated on different epidemiological scales

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) represents one of the poultry industry major threats, particularly in high density producing countries. The emergence and spread of new IBV genotypes have frustrated the various disease control efforts implemented over time. Despite that, few comprehensive and large scale studies have been performed to understand the international and local spreading dynamics of this virus. In the present work, these phenomena were evaluated by implementing a Bayesian phylodynamic approach to reconstruct the epidemiological patterns and population history of the QX genotype (currently renamed GI-19 lineage), the most relevant IBV lineage of the Old-World. Our analysis, based on 807 partial S1 sequences of strains collected from 18 countries between 1993 and 2015, demonstrates that this genotype originated in China well before its first identification. After a prolonged local circulation, it started spreading to other European, Asian and Middle East countries in successive waves, which were mirrored by concomitant fluctuations in viral population size. Interestingly, the within-Europe spread was characterized by a higher estimated migration rate compared with the inter-continental one, potentially reflecting the closer geographic and economic relationships among these countries. Nevertheless, the colonization of new states by the GI-19 lineage appeared to occur mostly by single introduction events in both intra and inter-continental spread, likely because of epidemiological factor and health policy combination which seems to prevent the frequent introduction and mixing of different strains. On the other hand, the within Italy QX circulation reconstruction showed a much more intricate connection network among different locations, evidencing the difficulty in controlling IBV spread especially in highly densely poultry populated areas. The presence of several well supported epidemiological links among distantly related Italian regions testifies that animal transportation and indirect transmission routes rather than local airborne diffusion contribute to the QX success and persistence at local scale. Globally, the spreading dynamics and evolution of the QX genotype were reconstructed from its very origin to nowadays, demonstrating the need of more effective direct control measures, particularly within each country. Unfortunately, the incompleteness of available molecular epidemiology data represents an insurmountable limit which leaves many questions currently unsolved, thus highlighting the compulsoriness of a structured monitoring and data sharing system implementation.